The current possibility of a U.S. government shutdown has escalated due to recent political developments. As of December 19, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump has actively urged Republicans to reject a bipartisan stopgap funding bill, thereby increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown. This intervention came just days before the deadline, disrupting an earlier bipartisan effort to keep the government funded past the week's end. The House of Representatives has already voted against Trump's new funding proposal, with a significant number of Republicans joining Democrats in opposition, signaling deep divisions within the party and Congress as a whole.
The situation is further complicated by posts on X indicating a significant increase in the odds of a shutdown, now at 68%, as reported by Kalshi, an online prediction market. These developments have put pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson, whose position has become less secure, with his odds of remaining Speaker dropping from over 95% to 60%. The discord stems from disagreements over spending levels and policy riders, with conservative Republicans demanding hardline cuts and policies that Democrats and moderate Republicans are unlikely to support. Unless a new agreement is reached swiftly, government services could face significant disruptions, affecting millions of federal employees and numerous public services starting Saturday.
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